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Emerging Geo-Political Situation of Pakistan

  • China has launched Belt and Road initiative and its flagship Project, CPEC is gaining momentum. Geopolitical situation of Pakistan is rapidly changing. Although Chinese focus is the economy, Pakistan geopolitical situation is gaining added importance.  It is clearly visible from Chinese handling of Dokolam dispute with India and Bhutan that they are looking for cooperation and avoiding conflict in the region. Hence, Pakistan over-reliance on China to confront militarily with India would lead us to wrong conclusions.
  • The Russian economy is based on oil and gas. Russians were doing well when oil prices were high. But the USA has manipulated oil and gas; its production and prices, and hence, effectively created serious hurdles for the resurgence of Russia by reducing prices of oil and gas.
  • The USA has pulled out India from Russian camp. New Geopolitics. Americans are supporting BJP led Govt in India which is known for racist policies and ill-treatment of weaker communities. Americans are saying what pleases Indian PM Modi ears. Actually, they are preparing India to look after US interests in the region. The USA also wants to benefit from Indian defense market and deny the same to Russia. Indian initial excitement would soon disappear while dealing with Trump. US President wants to improve American economy at all cost. furthermore, Pakistan is an important country and US would keep her engaging by stick and carrot.
  • Unlike China, Russia has potential to Challenge U.S. in the Region. Hence, US would not take Pakistan’s tilt to Russia very lightly. Therefore, Pakistan should move towards Russia slowly. Pakistan should not allow any foreign naval build up in Gwadar. Pakistan Navy alone should dominate the area effectively. Development of Gawader is an economic project and it must truly stay as such.
  • US Patronage of India in the region is not aimed at harming Pakistan. Actually, the move is to win lucrative defense deal with India and to check increasing influence of Russia and China in the region. U.S. is pressurizing Pakistan so that it does not join Russian camp and fully submit to US policies in Afghanistan. If Pakistan joins Russian camp; the USA will lose the advantage of pulling Indians from Russians camp. Pakistan has an edge in geopolitics. In that case, USA has to shed more blood and treasure in Afghanistan to stop Russians access towards Indian oceans. Therefore, US officials’ strict statements against Pakistan should be seen in broader context.
  • India is not a trustworthy partner for the USA. Indians have developed a false sense of superpower status in the region despite some serious vulnerabilities. This illusion has been reinforced by western arms exporters to India. Indians would try to buy better weapons at cheaper prices while balancing out their relationship with US and Russia. Hence, India would be trusted neither by American nor Russians. Furthermore, the threat from Pakistan will be kept alive and reliable so that Indians could keep buying expensive weapons. This creates space for Pakistan. Pakistan will remain a relevant and important country for U.S and Asians Super Powers; Russia and China.
  • The civilian and military senior leadership of Pakistan should remain on one page.  It is a core interest of Pakistan.
  • For the time being ”No External Threats”  to Pakistan but proxies on the domestic front. Therefore, Pakistan should be mindful on its domestic front.

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