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Emerging Geo Political Situation of Pakistan

  • China’s Belt and Road initiative is in full swing and its flagship Project, CPEC is also making good progress. Pakistan should capitalize first class communication infrastructure being developed by China. It is an excellent economic and social opportunity for people of Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistan focus should be economy and better linkages of communities with in Pakistan. The cost of CPEC should be transparent and its social impact properly measured. Else in the long run Pakistan and China might develop friction over CPEC related issues.  China has developed export oriented economy and Pakistan weak and fragile industrial base needs protection.Pakistan  free trade with China is clearly in disadvantage to Pakistan.
  • Pakistan has achieved strategic integrity while taking India head-on  during recent escalation/stand off. Pakistan defense industry is being viewed favorably by many countries. Pak JF-17 Thunder aircraft has become blue eyed of developing countries. The battle hardened armed forces of Pakistan has clear advantage over India. Pakistan Fauji Foundation and other welfare projects of Pak army like AWT should develop war capacity of the country while also earning profits for veterans and martyred.
  • The geopolitical situation of Pakistan is rapidly changing. Although Chinese focus is the economy, Pakistan, however, continues to expect  preferential treatments and advantage over India through alliances.  Chinese are focused on economy and avoiding conflict in the region. Hence, Pakistan over-reliance on China while dealing India militarily would lead us to wrong conclusions.
  • The Russian economy is based on oil and gas. Russians were doing well when oil prices were high. But the US has manipulated oil and gas; its production and prices,  hence, effectively created serious hurdles for the resurgence of Russia by reducing prices of oil and gas. It is a economic war. Pakistan should make course correction by improving relation with Russians.
  • The US has pulled out India from Russian camp. New Geopolitics. Americans are supporting BJP led Govt in India which is known for racist policies and ill-treatment of weaker communities. Actually, The US is preparing India to look after US interests in the region. The US also wants to benefit from Indian defense market and deny the same to Russia. Indian initial excitement has evaporated while dealing with Trump. The US President expects India to send her troops in Afghanistan which would be very expensive in lives and treasure for India. The US-India relations would come under immense pressures in coming days due to conflicting interests of both countries.
  • Pakistan is an important country and US would keep her engaging by stick and carrot. Pakistan now enjoys more space in world politics. Pakistan has developed improved relations with Russia and China. PM Imran khan, well reputed figure world wide is attracting world leadership quite easily but Pakistan economy continues to witness pressures from international financial organizations. Pak rupees is continuously depreciating. It is due to influence of US and its allies in the West.
  • Unlike China; Russia has potential to Challenge U.S. in the Region. Hence, US would not take Pakistan’s tilt to Russia very lightly. Therefore, Pakistan should improve its relations with Russia but no military alliance. US anger and manipulation in domestic affairs have come to light.  The support of Pashtun Tahhafaz movement (PTM) is one such example. It may be known to the world that Pakistan will not allow any foreign naval build up in Gwadar. Pakistan Navy alone will dominate the area more effectively. Development of Gawader is an economic project and it must truly stay as such. Batter economic activity suits all in the region and beyond.
  • US Patronage of India in the region is not aimed at harming Pakistan. Actually, the move is to win lucrative defense deal from India and to check increasing influence of Russia and China in the region. U.S. is pressurizing Pakistan so that it does not join Russian camp and fully submit to US policies in Afghanistan. Let the Russia and China handle the US. Pakistan would not be battle ground for great powers rivalries. If Pakistan is forced to join Russian camp; the USA will lose the advantage of pulling Indians from Russians camp. Pakistan has an edge in geopolitics. In that case, USA has to shed more blood and treasure in Afghanistan and beyond to stop Russians access towards Indian oceans. Therefore, US officials’ strict statements against Pakistan should be seen in broader context. US has little choice with determined political and military leadership of Pakistan.
  • India is not a trustworthy partner for the USA. Indians have developed a false sense of superpower status in the region despite some serious vulnerabilities. This illusion has been reinforced by western arms exporters to India. Indians would try to buy better weapons at cheaper prices while balancing out their relationship with US and Russia. Hence, India would be trusted neither by American nor Russians. BJP policies are dangerous for Indian and Kashmiri Muslims but helpful to Pakistan in bashing radicalized Indian society. India is on the path of implosion.
  • The threat from Pakistan will be kept alive for Indians so that they should keep buying expensive weapons. This creates space for Pakistan. Pakistan will remain a relevant and important country for U.S and Asians Super Powers; Russia and China.
  • The civilian and military senior leadership of Pakistan should remain on one page.  It is a core interest of Pakistan. The rift between two is often exploited by US and Western Powers.

  • Federally administered areas of Pakistan should be properly integrated in Khyber Pakhtun Khaw/Pakistan.. The people of tribal belt should be given special quota for induction into Pakistan armed forces and other government departments. Waziristan Regiment should be raised to honor people of the area. The province of Gilgit-Biltastan should have representation in the legislative assemblies.
  • For the time being ”No Worthwhile  Threat”  to Pakistan exists except Indian proxies on the domestic front. Therefore, Pakistan should be mindful of its domestic front; security and political stability , avoid arm race in the region and improve its economy.
  • Read More:       It’s fallacy to call India secular country, says Justice Katju

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